Joe Morgan, about Ray King, after King threw a few straight balls: "This is surprising, because his strength is coming out and throwing strikes."
Me: Wow, that's surprising! Joe Morgan's strength is coming out and saying smart, well-researched things!
Players keep the game great
What We journalists are asked every day is what the Exxon Valdes mess that was the Mitchell report will do to baseball.* Some journalists use their own eyes tests to judge differentiate between users and non-users, with no ESPN classic flashbacks to the 1970s NBA finals or '70s Super Bowl players.**
The answer to the question of the impact of the Mitchell report on baseball's future should be is contained in this week's Baseball America piece on the 25 best players who are 25 years of age or younger. Three of the top ten members of the Baseball America 25/25 list appear in working on my MVP and Cy Young Award selections predictions* for ESPN.com, I had including Miguel Cabrera, who was number one on BA's list and runner-up to Manny Ramirez** in my MVP list; Cabrera is No. 1 on the 25/25 list, with two of my top 10 MVP picks, Grady Sizemore and Joe Mauer, in their top 10 in both leagues .
In the National League, ? I have my MVP pick is David Wright as my MVP., who is he's No. 2 behind Cabrera in the 25-and-under catagory category*, and in my preseason top 10 I would have include Jose Reyes, Russell Martin, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman and Jeff Francouer. and** In addition to all of the young, talented hitters, some Cy Young award candidates appear in Baseball America's under-25 list, namely Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez and Cole Hamels would all be on my Cy Young preseason ballots. All of the players listed above are 25 or under.
Every one of these players were signed and entered the minor leaguers in * began his professional baseball career under a strict drug-testing program instituted by Bud Selig at the turn of the century. Is the testing foolproof? Of course not, anymore no more foolproof than the programs in the NFL or NBA.
But by scrolling through that well-thought-out Baseball America list, you realize that the game -- as it did through the Black Sox Scandal and the canceling of the 1994 World Series -- keeps re-inventing itself*. Watch Ryan Howard's commercial for Dick's Sporting Goods**, or just watch Delmon Young and Evan Longoria hit or Clayton Kershaw and Joba Chamberlain throw, and know that, once again, the players will save baseball***.
Young pitchers will shape AL East
Ian Kennedy has looked like a young Mike Boddicker, an artist. We have seen Joba Chamberlain, and there is a very good chance that Ross Ohlendorf will be a significant setup part of the Yankees' bullpen.
The esteemed Bill Madden of the New York Daily News checked with the Elias Sports Bureau and found that no team has won the World Series with two rookies starting 25 games. Indeed, there is a lot of pressure on Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain and Ohlendorf, but what is so different in the American League East is that the three teams that can win the division -- and you might be surprised by how many people on the west coast of Florida believe that the Jays have a legitimate chance to win the division -- are all dependent on young pitchers.
The one place that seemed to make sense for Barry Bonds is Seattle, especially if Richie Sexson struggles and they can move Jose Vidro to first base. But indications are that if Sexson doesn't bounce back -- and Sexson's convinced he will -- then Vidro indeed will go to first, but Jeff Clement would get the first shot at being the DH.
The raves about Oakland's young pitching seems universal.
The Gammons we yearn for -- let's call him Fantasy Gammons -- is a writer with Gammons's scoops, Gammons's insight, Gammons's experience, and Gammons's baseball knowledge who can convey all this goodness to us in a comprehensible form, perhaps entertaining us a bit along the way.
One sees Carew and Killebrew, Oliva and Molitor and the ever-diligent presence of former manager and current Twins executive Tom Kelly drilling players on the back fields. But one doesn't Johan Santana or Hunter, only the lingering question of whether or not they will trade closer Joe Nathan at the deadline if they're trailing by double digits at the All-Star break.I think (it's always hard to tell for sure) that Gammons' main theme in this article is that the Twins will probably have a rough year, but the club has some promising components as well. Here, he dumbly decides to present this view to us in the form of what "one sees" and what "one" does not "see" when "one" (apparently) gazes at the Twins' spring training facility, something Peter Gammons apparently did.
Boof Bonser has reshaped his body, Scott Baker has been bothered by a minor upper back strain but is progressing and Kevin Slowey will get a place in the rotation after going 10-5 at Triple-A Rochester and 4-1 with the Twins last season. There is no pretense of power, just the promise to throw strikes and get to what should be a very strong bullpen with Nathan at the end and Pat Neshek, Juan Rincon, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and the very impressive Nick Blackburn setting up.Does Gammons know what "pretense" means? What a weird word choice. More importantly, where is there no "pretense" of power? Billy, this is precisely why you don't start your sentences with "there is" -- it's gosh darn vague. Again however, as an expert Gammons decipherer, I gather after a few readings (and based on my recollection that Boof Bonser throws gas) that Gammons is saying that Kevin Slowey in particular is not a power pitcher.
Taking in two hours of Bill Belichick with Tony La Russa watching simple spring training drills was fascinating. Belichick asked La Russa to explain almost every drill.Obviously this makes absolutely no sense. Based only on my knowledge of who Belichick, La Russa, and Gammons are, I can surmise what happened: I think Tony La Russa led some baseball drills while Belichick and Gammons watched. My scenario is not at all what Gammons writes here, literally speaking, but it bears a stronger relationship with reality.
Delmon Young got excited talking about it.
"This is incredible," he said, looking out across the Twins' spring training site (Lee County Stadium).
"Every day I get to work on hitting with Rod Carew and Tony Oliva, and Harmon Killebrew is watching. I get to work on baserunning with Paul Molitor. It's been great for me."
First of all, the fact that Young not only appreciates working with Hall of Famers but knows who they are speaks volumes about Young as a baseball player. "I've said all along that the Twins got themselves a future star in Delmon," says one AL GM. "That's great that he understands what that means. We have a guy who had never heard of Brooks Robinson or Mike Schmidt."
These are the Twins.
Oh, they've lost to free agency or traded away three-fifths of its starting rotation that was fourth in the league in ERA in 2007, and what's left is a rotation where Livan Hernandez may be their Opening Day starter and the four remaining starters were a combined 21-22 last season.
Torii Hunter is now playing with the Angels, and they have some issues in their infield. Oh, by the way, they finished 17 games behind the Indians last season and were outscored by the opposition.
"We've had to change directions," said manager Ron Gardenhire, who from 2002 through 2006 won four division titles and were 97 games over .500.
Ralph Kiner (apparently visiting out of retirement): You know, the
thing about [Pedro] Martinez is that his record is better than Sandy Koufax's,
and that's a pretty strong statement right there.
Gary Cohen: Well, especially considering the era that he pitched in, some
of the most offensive-oriented years in baseball history.
Kiner: the steroid era, is what you're saying.
Gary Cohen: Okay.... I'll accept that (laughing neverously).
Some players in the game are forever viewed through the lens of their contract. As they are signed, the debate begins about whether they are worth the money, a conversation that continues throughout the duration of their multiyear contract and even beyond. If you separate the player from the money, however, and judge him only on what he provides as a player -- because after all, once the contract is signed, the money is gone -- you might get an entirely different view. There are a number of well-paid players -- players who might even be overpaid -- who serve their team very well.So now he is actually ignoring the cost of the player, because "once the contract is signed, the money is gone." But the entire point here is whether the player was worth the money, given the alternative ways of spending the same money. That is precisely what made the "big" deals "bad." So ignoring the cost just begs the question. This is like if you had a choice between a Fort Taurus for $30,000 and a Lexus for $25,000, and you came to ask Buster for advice. He would talk about how the Taurus will generally do the job, and will be better than riding a bicycle to work. He will ignore BOTH the cost of the Taurus AND the alternatives you have. Ignoring these things allows you to assert the useless proposition that a player is good because he just shows up every day and plays baseball (and, as we'll see below, Buster actually DOES assert this with regard to a particular player!). The lesson: nobody should ever ask Buster Olney about anything.
Gil Meche, Royals: His $55 million contract stunned the industry in the winter of 2006-2007, because going into last season, Meche had never pitched in 190 innings in any season, and won more than 11 games once in his career. But Meche shouldered the responsibility that came with his contract last year, made 34 starts, threw 216 innings and had the best season of his career, with a 3.67 ERA. He went 9-13, but …That ellipsis is in the original. But WHAT??? Now, I believe Buster is one of those baseball commentators/writers who is dumb enough to think that a pitcher's W-L record actually says something accurate about the pitcher's value. But let's be charitable. Let's replace the ellipsis with "that was due only to the utter putridity of the Royals lineup and bullpen, not any deficiency in Meche." This still shows precisely why the contract was pointless. Why pay premium money for a half-decent pitcher when you are nowhere near contention and will still lose most of your games and when you can instead spend the money and effort on rebuilding a young talent base? Oh that's right, we're ignoring alternatives. Essentially, Buster is just here to inform us that Gil Meche had an ERA of 3.67, which is good (without even examining, by the way, how lucky that ERA might have been). Again, thank you, Buster.
Adrian Beltre, Mariners: He signed a five-year, $65 million deal and has struggled offensively at times, in his first three years with Seattle. But he plays Gold Glove-defense, is perceived to play hard, and has averaged 154 games and 92 RBI in his three seasons. There aren't many third baseman who have been better than that.We should address this one, because I hear the point made often by Seattlites. The Mariners are a decently wealthy team, but not one of unlimited resources. After all, this is the team that had to shed A-Rod and the Unit for financial reasons. Yes, Beltre is good, but the question is, could the Mariners have paid him less, or done better with the same amount of money, at 3rd base and/or elsewhere on the field? Beltre's VORP last year was 28.6. Not bad, good for 10th among third basemen in baseball last year. Of the nine players above him, one is the aforementioned, unaffordable A-Rod, five have not yet hit free agency, and all three of the remaining players (Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, and Mike Lowell) made less money than Beltre (although it is fair to point out that Jones and Lowell both had injury problems in the preceding two years). Exactly zero of the 3rd basemen with lower VORP's than Beltre made more money than he did last year. VORP fails to account for defense, you say? Beltre is overrated defensively and, according to Baseball Prospectus, was in fact slightly below average last year in that department (a FRAA of -3). Seattle clearly overpaid him based on what everyone outside the Puget Sound area knew to be a freakish 2004 season. The case of Aramis Ramirez is especially instructive -- he was a free agent two years later than Beltre (and thus salaries were more inflated in the interim), had a better, more consistent track record, and signed for less annual value than Beltre.
I don't need to point out why the Torii Hunter contract was so collossally stupid, or the well-known, alleged fact that the Angels coughed up way more cash than any other team was willing to pay. But how completely lame is Buster's defense? "He comes to play every day"??? What baseball players don't come to play every day? Were the Angels considering some alternative OF who they then discovered would occasionally choose to stay home and watch TV on game day? How will Hunter be less tired than other players on his team for a day game after a night game, and how exactly will he "lift" his teammates? Does he really believe this nonsense? And do these nebulous skills, even if we grant they exist, really require a $95 million outlay? Can't they hire a motivational speaker for $200/hour on those sluggish days? Or maybe they can hire Buster Olney as an inspirational example to show that you can get paid lots of money by the Worldwide Leader in Sports to say absolutely nothing intelligent or interesting.
Torii Hunter, Angels: His $90 million contract absolutely stunned executives around baseball, because mostly Hunter is thought of, beyond his spectacular defense, as a very good complementary offensive player -- but not a star hitter. He's 32, has achieved a .290 average, has hit 30 homers once, and driven in 100 or more runs twice. But here's the thing about Hunter. He comes to play every day. He runs down balls in the outfield every day. He is a positive clubhouse presence every day. There will be mornings after night games when other Angels will be lagging and Hunter will lift them. And he will get his share of hits and drive in his share of runs and create more than his share of defensive outs.
Hunter worth Angels' investment
Now, this is not going to be a lecture about whether this is a "good contract" for a midfield player who turns 33 during the season (remember, Manny Ramirez's contract was once considered so horrible that he was put on waivers; and now with options for 2009 and 2010, the Red Sox believe it's a great contract).
This is about a good player being rewarded. This is about the values that social leaders like Earl Martin Phalen of Better Educated Leaders for Life (BELL) in Boston have built into hundreds of thousands of children in Boston and New York (and, yes, Phelan was Barack Obama's roommate at Harvard Law School).
