Slow day at work, I resorted to reading
a Buster Olney article. Now, I'm still bored, and I'm also 1.3% dumber than before. Bad choice.
Buster's "blog" (yes, ESPN.com's "blogs" require scare quotes, as they are "blogs" in name only) entry today proves that Peter Gammons is not the only writer ESPN.com does not edit. It also proves, once again, that Buster is a tool.
Because Santana is eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees is willing to give up the boatload of young players that Smith really wanted for the two-time Cy Young Award winner, while paying Santana a $125-$150 million extension.
How good a writer do you have to be to know that it should be "
are willing," not "is"? That shit only gets confusing when you have two singular alternatives that get lumped together in the writer's mind, leading to a mistake, or where one alternative is singular and the other is plural (and even a decent writer could, conceivably, forget the rule that the last one governs). But either "Red Sox" OR "Yankees" would be plural by itself (not "themselves" here, because I'm referring to the word, not the actual Yankees) -- so how could using both turn into a singular "is"? Would he EVER say "the Yankees is not willing"? Then why would he say "neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees is willing"? Okay, enough.
In fact, if you think of the game "Deal Or No Deal," any $750,000 deal is off the table, too. Smith only has what he regards as subpar offers on the table. We know this, because otherwise he would've pulled the trigger already...
WOW! Isn't it a good thing we have analysts like Buster to come up with such brilliant inferences. "If Smith had gotten an offer he wanted to take, he would have taken it." Again, WOW! My mind is completely blown. To smithereens, even. He goes on...
So if you are Smith, what do you do? Do you take a subpar deal? Or do you simply go to spring training and prepare to start the season with Santana?
Wait a second, Buster! All you showed was that
Smith believed he was getting a "subpar" deal. Isn't the purpose of your article to provide
your own opinion on what Smith should do? Instead, all you've done is assume Smith is right. So, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that your answer to these questions is Santana "should" not be traded, which is of course only because he has not actually BEEN traded yet by the immaculate Smith...
If I was in Smith's shoes, I'd keep Santana. Because to trade him would be to forgo the opportunity to contend in 2008, when the Twins have a chance to be a good team, with Francisco Liriano returning, with Joe Nathan closing, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young hitting in the middle of their lineup.
Oh, waddaya know, I was right. (As an aside, it should read "If I
were in Smith's shoes..."). Of course, if Smith
does end up trading Santana, it will be because he's determined that the offer was not "subpar," a determination that is automatically correct, and thus he would still not have done the wrong thing. What a luxury, nothing for the Twins can possibly go wrong here!
Now, on the other side is Buster's optimism about the Twins chances
with Santana in 2008. I'm not a professional at statistical analysis -- this blog is primarily about bad writing -- but they're related, so let's do a little amateur, armchair analysis here. (It's also tremendously fun to trash the Twinkies.) Buster believes they will contend, listing 6 names, all of which he must believe belong to players who are good. But there are some serious question marks here.
Let's start with offense. Last year, the Twins scored 718 runs, "good" for 3rd to last in the American League. Their best hitter was Torii Hunter. He's now gone, replaced by Delmon Young, whom Buster mentions here. Young last year had a pathetic OBP of .316 and slugged only .408. He was a well-below-average player. Now, of course, Young has a lot of talent and promise, but how much of that crap have we seen evaporate, unrealized, into the ether? Especially when it has belonged to major nutjobs such as Young, who famously hurled a bat at an umpire in the minors. Yikes. He might still take a step forward in 2008, but it would have to be a
giant step forward to replace Hunter (at least the 2007 version).
Yeah, Mauer is good, but last year he continued his habit of not playing very much, appearing in only 109 games and playing only decently in those games. If history is any guide, the disabled-ness will continue.
Morneau is good, Cuddyer is pretty good (although we'll see how much of a fluke his 2007 was), but the Twins have a knack of filling out the bottom -- and sometimes top! -- of their lineups with, not just average, but
gawd-awful hitters. Punchless batters such as Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett, and Jason Tyner were regular starters.
Jeffrey frickin' Cirillo played the most games at
designated hitter last year of any Twin. Duds such as Mike Redmond, Alexei Casilla, Luis Rodriguez, and Leeeeeeeew Ford all received significant playing time. And, saving the best for last,
Nick Punto played one hundred and fifty games, and in those games batted .210, reached base 29.1% of the time, and slugged (gurgle, gag, gulp) .291.Perhaps I have not been following the Twins closely enough this offseason, but I don't think they've done much else to make up for the loss of Hunter, much less improve their woeful run total from last year. Craig Monroe had an atrocious year last year, and although he was somewhat better previously and had a little pop, he rarely makes contact and almost never walks. It's not clear he will start anyway, since, in addition to Young and Cuddyer, they have Jason Kubel, who was actually not terrible last year (whereas Monroe
was). The Twins also signed Adam Everett, who is a terrific fielder but cannot hit baseballs with significant effectiveness. If the signing enables them to move Punto out of the lineup (I guess by shifting Bartlett to third?), it might improve the team marginally, but nothing earth-shattering there.
Now -- pitching! Yes, Liriano is back. Probably. But, who is Liriano now? Nobody knows, and many believe he'll never be the same as he was when he came up. Which is sad, from a baseball fan's perspective, because he was flipping amazing. They had a league-average starter named Carlos Silva, now gone. Booooooooof Bonser and Matt Garza are "promising" and "talented" but, as noted above, who the heck knows, especially with pitchers. They have some other "promising" guy named Slowey, and of course their celebrated set-up man Pat Neshek. I admit, Pat Neshek is a ton of fun, but hitters started figuring him out in the 2nd half last season.
What does this all add up to? A possible wild card team... in the National League! (snap!) In the AL Central, it's a possible 3rd place finish. How much money is that worth in Let's Make a Deal, Buster?
If the Twins struggle early, Smith could dangle Santana again during the season -- and odds are he could get offers in quality to what he has now from the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets, and maybe even better, depending on the level of desperation of the teams involved.
I guess the word "similar" was accidentally deleted from here.
Santana has a full no-trade clause and there have been reports that he could reject any deal once the season starts, but executives involved in these conversations are not concerned with that. They believe it would be very hard for Santana to walk away from a trade if the Mets or Red Sox or Yankees offered him the record-setting contract, despite what he may feel now.
Why would it be hard for Santana to "walk away"? Couldn't he get even better offers at the end of the season, when he can get
all the rich teams in on the bidding, not just the ones in position to make a deadline deal? Buster, like a lot of writers lately, fails to address this point.
The rest of the post, which is actually very long, has a lot of tidbits and links, as well as an admittedly interesting and helpful summary of the congressional hearings on 'roids, if you're not sick of that topic yet (I am). But as for the topic -- Santana -- where he sought out to add some analysis of his own, he ended up adding nothing. So again, I'm still bored.